IFP Roundup: judicial injunctions, megafires, interconnection queues and more
We're excited to add two new Non-Resident Senior Fellows to our roster and look forward to collaborating with them going forward:
Nicholas Bagley, a law professor at the University of Michigan and current title holder for “Most Frequent Statecraft Guest.”
Miles Brundage, an independent AI policy researcher, most recently at OpenAI working on AGI readiness.
IFP Research
🗽 STEM Immigration and the US Defense Workforce
A new report from Distinguished Immigration Counsel Amy Nice, published by the University of Chicago and the National Bureau of Economic Research, examines the critical role of foreign-born STEM professionals in US national security.
Foreign-born STEM talent is essential to defense innovation. The Defense Department and US national labs are working with the private sector on AI and other critical technologies for national security. Immigrants comprise 37% of the advanced STEM workforce in Department of Defense-funded projects.
The US faces growing competition for global STEM expertise. China is projected to produce nearly double the number of STEM PhDs as the US by 2025.
Policy changes are underway but remain insufficient. The Biden administration updated visa guidance for STEM graduates, but legislative action is needed to address wait times and uncertainty about adjudications.
Read the full report here.
Statecraft, by Senior Editor Santi Ruiz
⚖️ The Rise of Judicial Injunctions
Legal expert and new Non-Resident Senior Fellow Nicholas Bagley joined Statecraft to explain why courts are increasingly halting executive actions. While judicial review has long been a check on executive power, the rise of nationwide injunctions has dramatically expanded the judiciary’s role in shaping policy.
Nationwide injunctions are a recent trend. Previously, rulings applied only to the parties to a case, but now courts frequently halt policies nationwide.
Congressional dysfunction has fueled judicial intervention. Gridlock has led presidents to expand executive authority, prompting courts to push back.
Partisan views on judicial power have flipped. Conservatives now seek to limit injunctions, while progressives view them as essential checks on Trump’s policies.
Supreme Court intervention is likely. Expect early rulings through its "shadow docket" as legal battles escalate.
Read the transcript or listen to the podcast here.
📝 How to Run a White House Office
Tom Kalil, former Deputy Director for Policy at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), spoke with Santi about some key lessons from his time in government. Kalil identified three important maxims for navigating policy and bureaucracy.
People never follow up. Meetings don’t ensure progress — persistent follow-up does. Always clarify next steps, create an open channel for updates, and proactively check in.
Talk to who owns the paper. Policy moves through formal documents. Identifying who drafts key memos, budgets, or executive orders is critical for driving action.
Make it easy for people to say yes. Reduce friction in decision-making. Draft emails, suggest key personnel, or offer ready-made solutions to get buy-in from agencies and leaders.
Read the whole conversation here.
🔥 The Wildfire Crisis in California
Matt Weiner, CEO of Megafire Action, joined Statecraft to break down why California’s wildfires are growing worse despite decades of policy focus. While climate change plays a role, bureaucratic obstacles, outdated regulations, and flawed land management strategies are making the problem harder to solve.
Fire suppression without land management has created a crisis. Decades of fire exclusion have left landscapes overloaded with dry, flammable material, making catastrophic fires more frequent and intense.
Regulatory barriers slow wildfire mitigation. Permitting laws like NEPA delay controlled burns and mechanical thinning for years — often until it’s too late. The Clean Air Act paradoxically penalizes controlled burns while exempting wildfire smoke.
Bureaucratic fragmentation hinders response. Multiple agencies with conflicting priorities manage fire at the federal, state, and local levels, but no single entity oversees risk reduction holistically.
California’s insurance market is in crisis. Strict rate regulations have driven private insurers out, leaving the state-backed FAIR plan on the hook for billions in wildfire damages.
Read or listen to the full conversation here.
Construction Physics, by Senior Infrastructure Fellow Brian Potter
⚡ Inside the Interconnection Queue
Brian got access to a comprehensive dataset about the interconnection queue — the massive backlog of energy projects waiting for grid approval. The queue contains more than 11,000 projects totaling nearly twice the country’s current generation capacity. Delays in this process are a major obstacle to expanding US energy infrastructure.
Renewables dominate planned projects. Solar, wind, and battery storage make up 90% of proposed capacity, with solar leading in 36 states.
Grid congestion is slowing approvals. Project wait times now average nearly five years, delaying infrastructure expansion.
Most projects won’t be built. Historically, 72% of queued projects are withdrawn due to high and uncertain grid upgrade costs.
Read more here.
🏗️ The Impact of Tariffs on US Construction
The Trump administration’s new tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese imports — ranging from 10% to 25% — have sparked widespread debate over their economic impact. Brian dove into the trade data from the US Census Bureau to figure out where construction imports come from and how tariffs may affect building costs.
Construction-related imports are massive. In 2022, the US imported $469 billion in construction-related goods, accounting for nearly 15% of total US imports.
Metals dominate, but other materials are critical too. Steel and non-ferrous metals lead at $163 billion, followed by interior fit-out materials ($129 billion), building components ($84 billion), and tools and machinery ($46 billion).
Tariffs hit key trading partners differently.
China supplies mostly finished goods — appliances, lighting, and power tools — rather than raw materials.
Canada is a major supplier of bulk materials, accounting for 50% of US wood imports and 20% of metal imports.
Mexico provides a mix of materials, machinery, and manufactured goods, benefiting from proximity and lower labor costs.
Read the full analysis here.
👋 Tweet for the Road
